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Saturday, March 6, 2010

PHOTO ALBUMS

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This is where i will update all the Bird Pics taken during several BIRDING Tours I have gone for and will go in the future.


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Pics of Mumbai Cyclothon 2010 where i represented my founded NGO - Save Aarey Trees
(search for - "Save Aarey Milk Colony" on Facebook)


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Pics of Mumbai Marathon where i represented NGO - Apne Aap Womens Collective


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Pics of My Adventure Trip to Kolad. On my Facebook account you will find more pics of
other adventure trips.

Thursday, March 4, 2010

HIGH, SHOCK, LESSON

For a large number of people around the world the period 2008 - 2009 - 2010 will go down as years of contrast.

Year 2008 -
In 1952 War-ravaged Japan takes off on a spectacular growth path that sees its economy grow at an average of 9.6 per cent per annum for the next 19 years. South Korean strongman Park Chung Hee signals a commitment to an export-led model of growth. The seeds are sown for a remarkable expansion that sees the Korean economy growing at an average of more than 8 per cent per year between 1962 and 1989. In 1990s A huge new economy, China, joins the group. Come 2007 and India had arrived. The Indian economy had recently been notching up some of the highest growth rates in the world and year 2008 was the ultimate flight stage. All the indexes were at Peak. There was a roar in the market which was never seen before. I achieved my career best performance till date in the midst. We entered the year 2009 with double the enthusiasm and optimism. However it’s fair to say that 2009 will go down as easily the most interesting, harried, stressful, and memorable. We were not prepared for what was in-store for financial industry.


Year 2009 -

As we entered 2009, the world mood was somber, the macro economic environment bleak, deflation a real threat, the outlook for asset prices poor and regular news about banks falling. Closer to home in India, the most important Bombay stock exchange was at 10,000 (much below the highs of 2008 which was 20,000). In the days that followed, we learned about the Satyam fraud (India’s Enron like Fraud) post which much soul searching was done by India Inc and us players in the financial services industry. Further globally, Iceland became the first country to default on its obligations; Fortress, a listed hedge fund, saw its stock price down 96%; and the US announced a contraction in 1Q 2009 GDP. It all looked bleak and actually quite scary.

My department had borne the brunt of the global economic slowdown in the form of impairments. With a strong will, we started to confront the tough times. We operated in an industry that is arguably the worst hit. The history of sporting comebacks is replete with stories of great successes and abysmal failures. For every Bjorn Borg (who made an entirely forgettable tennis comeback 8 years after retiring) there is a Lance Armstrong (who overcame cancer to come back and win the Tour de France 6 more times). A Leader’s inherent talent is of little consequence without his team backing him in every step that he takes. I see an interesting analogy here to our business. Luckily we had a Lance Armstrong in form of our department head that not only stood by the department but also turned the tables around.

Year 2010 – The last 2 years are ones which I won’t be able to forget. They have shaped the way I think – “Fly high with feet firmly on ground”. It was like a reality check - to develop more on strengths and work on eliminating any weak links. The 2 contrasting years have taught me a lot at both ends – personal & business. At the personal front, I have learnt to celebrate success and at the same time accept defeats. Four qualities which lead to success in both 2008 & 2009 were discipline, focus, perseverance & enjoyment. It’s very important to have fun in what one does, without which one can never give the best. The recession has provided a moment to step back and contemplate, to come to a truer understanding of life lessons like that happiness is not derived from material things - "Most people really don't need bottled water". At business end, a company should not just be profitable but be strong as well, growth cannot come at the price of compromising basic fundamentals. The fact that cohesive units / teams can win all battles was reinforced in me.

I see years to come as opportunity to learn from our mistakes, to rise from the fall

INDIA - PROBLEM OF PLENTY

Does the doomsday theory hold water? With the kind of news that is hitting the newsstand on daily basis, the answer to my mind is - "MAY BE". From a vehement "NO" I have changed my stance to "MAY BE". Due to the World economic turmoil, The lay-off scared employee set are at faceoff with opportunity cost, be it in terms of low or no bonus, which was a important salary component, or be it in terms of no salary hikes inspite of a high inflation.

Consider this Percentage increase in price data compilation from various ministries of government -

Food products: average price increase of 3.43% (in 2007) to 22.55% in January 2010.
Food commodities: 5.60% (in 2007) to 19.42% in January 2010.
Foodgrains: 6.27% (in 2007) to 17.89% in January 2010.
Pulses: 2.14% (in 2007) to 45.62% in 2007 in January 2010.
Dairy products: 6.08% (in 2007) to 12.87% in January 2010.
Eggs, fish and meat: 6.38% (in 2007) to 30.71% in January 2010.
Sugar: (-)14.69% (in 2007) to 58.94% in January 2010.
(source - rediff.com)

Absorb this: Iceland, Greece and Dubai are already walking on razor sharp edges with Greece being told to sell its islands to reduce mounting debt. Sultans are already eyeing the eponymous "Acropolis". Germany is touted to bailout Greece but Germany itself is facing the worst ever recession (post war). As I write, I hear Spain, Italy & Portugal are slated to join the Island selling club. USA's economy playing hide and seek with a "W" level growth & degrowth is not helping either. Google may be surely eyeing buying a part of Venice to set up a Google resort. 10% budget deficits are talk of the town.


And now absorb this - Nick George use to earn 60000 Indian rupees in 2008 with a five Lacs bonus and now in March 2010 still earns the same with 1 Lac bonus. Nick George use to send his child in a SSC board school but due to education competitiveness now sends his child to a ICSE / CBSE board school having 200% more fees. He has a demanding wife and life, both of which he cannot compromise. Weekends still has to be happening to put brain into proper gear for coming week.

Average Weekly Expenses of Nick George -

Child Fees - 800 Rs
800 Cc Car Weekly installments - 800 Rs
Petrol expenses - 1000
Core Food Bill - 1000
Amnesia Night Club Entry - 2000
2 Vodka Shots - 300
2 Beer Pints - 300
Sunday Brunch - 1000
Holly / Bolly Wood blockbuster ticket cost - 1000
Travel Expense extrapolated /week basis - 1500
Shopping Expense extrapolated /week basis - 500

Around 40,000 rupees from salary are already accounted for, in the expenses above. If Nick George happens to be a migrant from a countryside town to a metropolis in India; he will surely contemplate going back to his MOTHERLAND, with around 3000 Rs of weekly installment towards owning a small nest in metropolis. And if Nick George has dependents, he surely will look for rapid job movements to make his salary touch 75000 Rs in hand at least. (IN HAND salary is the right way to talk to employers these days; As much as 50% of the salary can be variable and in these times variable salary is never paid). Nick George's earlier option to find a job abroad is routed out because of the word "W" earlier stated. Even abroad on last country 1,00,00 Indian students went USA to study in the year 2008 and around 30,000 to UK.

The irony is luxury car manufacturers have rolled out considerably higher number of models this year vis-à-vis earlier years. Though Indian Salary levels have increased, but the kind of population base our country carries, we will always be amongst lower strata in the Human Development Index. Even in upper middleclass levels too much education is leading to too much competition and lower salary base. An African returning to his country also can negotiate salary equivalent to the one he /she would get in say a pound dominated country like "United Kingdom", sadly but Indians can't.

Bottom line - For salaries of Indians as a whole group to rise (taking all classes of Indians) and match salaries of European or even other Asian counterparts, a "TAB" on population needs to be put. Population and salary are always on a seesaw and problem of plenty is the pillar. With every inch of land in metros are being carved into residence space, 25 lacs of vehicles in a 50 sq.km space metro cities, Indians will have to reach Moon soon. This problem is paramount for 'India', above all the fiscal deficits issues, above selling its Islands, and also above Growth. Fundamentals have to be tightened first to create a robust platform for long term growth.